The MPC headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the resolution of the meeting at around noon on Thursday.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday expectedly left interest rates unchanged and maintained an accommodative stance as the economy faces a renewed threat to growth due to the resurgence of coronavirus cases.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday decided to keep policy rate unchanged for third time in a row as it maintains heightened vigil on inflation. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022.
Titan surged 2.98 per cent, followed by IndusInd Bank, ITC, JSW Steel, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services and Maruti. Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints, Bharti Airtel and HDFC Bank were among the laggards.
Manufacturing activities in India fell to a five-month low in September as new orders rose at a softer pace, which tempered production growth, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 57.5 in September, down from 58.6 in August -- the lowest in five months. The September PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 27th straight month.
Maintaining 4 per cent inflation is appropriate for India as targeting a lower rate could impart deflationary bias to the monetary policy, said a Reserve Bank paper. Under the current dispensation, the RBI has been mandated by the government to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. The paper, authored by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra and another official Harendra Kumar Behera, has found a steady decline in trend inflation to 4.1-4.3 per cent since 2014.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday defended the Reserve Bank's handling of the price situation, saying acting prematurely on inflation would have exerted a heavy cost on the economy and citizens. Acknowledging that the inflation target has been missed, Das said the RBI decided to support the economy by not introducing a rate hike in face of a spike in inflation. "We prevented a 'complete collapse of the economy' by keeping rates lower and stayed away from premature tightening," Das said speaking at the annual FIBAC conference of bankers in Mumbai.
The final and most significant reset in the relations between the government and the RBI is the manner in which the process of appointing the governor and deputy governors of the central bank has been changed.
Mortgage lender HDFC Ltd on Friday hiked its lending rate by 50 basis points hours after the Reserve Bank raised the benchmark interest rate to tame inflation. The move would increase EMIs for housing loans by the firm. "HDFC increases its Retail Prime Lending Rate (RPLR) on Housing loans, on which its Adjustable Rate Home Loans (ARHL) are benchmarked, by 50 basis points, with effect from October 1, 2022," the country's biggest housing finance company said in a statement.
'The real repo rate is very high in terms of core inflation.'
The December meeting of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will start on Wednesday even as there is no clarity on whether Governor Shaktikanta Das, the chair of the panel, will continue in office after his term ends next week. The outcome of the meeting will be announced on Friday by Das at 10 in the morning.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent and decided to continue with its accommodative stance against the backdrop of concerns over the emergence of the new coronavirus variant Omicron.
Stock markets will be driven by quarterly earnings by index majors, global trends and the RBI's interest rate decision this week after digesting news on budget proposals and US Federal policy outcome, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also dictate trends in equities. "On the domestic front, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting is scheduled from February 6-8.
"The Monetary Policy Committee recognises that there is monetary policy space for future action. However, given the evolving growth-inflation dynamics, the MPC felt it appropriate to take a pause at this juncture," the RBI said in its fifth bi-monthly monetary policy for this fiscal.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday said the central bank has developed an innovative artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) based model MuleHunter.ai to address the growing issue of mule bank accounts that are often used for committing financial fraud. Developed by the Reserve Bank Innovation Hub, the new initiative is piloted with two public sector banks.
The services sector growth in India fell to a one-year low in November on softer expansions in new work intakes and output, despite receding price pressures, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services Business Activity Index fell from 58.4 in October to a one-year low of 56.9 in November. Despite witnessing a month-on-month decline, the rate of expansion was stronger than its long-run average.
The Reserve Bank's rate setting panel on Thursday met to finalise a report for the government on why it failed to keep retail inflation below the target of 6 per cent for three consecutive quarters since January this year, said sources. The report will be presented to the government as per the Reserve Bank of India Act, they added. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is headed by Governor Shaktikanta Das.
The Reserve Bank on Friday projected retail inflation to be in 5-5.2 per cent range during the first half of the next fiscal year, expecting further softening of vegetables prices in near term. Also, it has lowered the retail inflation forecast for the current January-March quarter of 2020-21 fiscal at 5.2 per cent. The Reserve Bank (RBI) has kept the key policy rate unchanged at 4 per cent, with an accommodative stance, so as to ensure that inflation remains well within the target, Governor Shaktikanta Das said while announcing the last monetary policy of 2020-21.
'Investment creates capacity and reduces inflation. Income, employment, and savings rise.'
India's prices are rising faster than many of its emerging market peers. The country's inflation print for May at 4.25 per cent is a marked reduction from the levels seen in May 2022 (7.04 per cent). However, even though the inflation rate remains within the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 per cent, with a 2 per cent margin on either side, it continues to be higher than China, Russia, and Brazil.
The government on Monday ruled out making public the RBI report detailing the reasons why the central bank could not keep inflation within the targeted 6 per cent upper limit for the three consecutive quarters. "Yes sir, RBI has furnished a report to the central government, as mandated under Section 45ZN of the RBI Act, 1934 and Regulation 7 of RBI Monetary Policy Committee and Monetary Policy process Regulations, 2016," minister of state for finance Pankaj Chaudhary said in a written reply. The said provisions of the RBI Act, 1934, and regulations therein does not provide for making the report public, he said.
Of the six-member rate-setting monetary policy committee, five members voted for a 25 bps cut while one by 40 bps, the RBI said.
Retail inflation rose to three-month high of 4.81 per cent in June, mainly on account of hardening prices of food, according to the government data. Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 4.31 per per (revised upward from 4.25 per cent) in May and 7 per cent in June 2022. The inflation, however, remains within the RBI's comfort level of below 6 per cent.
Retail inflation crossed the RBI's comfort level and rose to 5.21 per cent in December on increase in prices of food items.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday did a four-day variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) auction to reduce liquidity in the banking system as the overnight money market rates fell below the repo rate, said market participants. The repo rate is 6.50 per cent. Banks parked Rs 18,750 crore at the auction against a notified amount of Rs 50,000 crore at a weighted average rate of 6.49 per cent.
Equity benchmark Nifty scaled the psychological milestone of 21,000 in afternoon trade on Friday, and the Sensex touched its all-time intraday high of 69,888.33 after the central bank's decision to keep policy rates unchanged in line with market expectations. The 50-share benchmark index opened on a bullish note, after taking a breather on Thursday, and rose to 21,006.10. As many as 25 stocks were trading in the green, and 24 stocks defied the broader market and were trading in the negative territory.
The central bank and Indian government has reached a "broad consensus" on the composition of a rate-setting panel.
The economic growth is likely to moderate to 6.1 per cent, slowest in over seven quarters, from 6.6 per cent last year same period.
In policy review meet in June, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan kept interest rates intact.
With inflation under control, the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC's) job is to support growth because the economy had recovered well from the lows in the initial months of the pandemic, according to the panel's members, who met in the first week of this month. The minutes of the meeting show the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor in his statement said: "Given the sharp moderation in inflation along with a stable near-term outlook, monetary policy needs to continue with the accommodative stance to ensure that the recovery gains greater traction and becomes broad-based." Ashima Goyal, external member of the MPC, said: "The current macroeconomic configuration and its expected future evolution imply there is space for the MPC to continue to support the revival of the economy with inflation remaining in the target band."
RBI retained the GDP growth for the financial year 2018-19 at 7.4 per cent.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday increased the benchmark lending rate by 40 basis points (bps) to 4.40 per cent in a bid to contain inflation, which has remained stubbornly above the target zone of 6 per cent for the last three months. The decision follows an unscheduled meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with all six members unanimously voting for a rate hike while maintaining the accommodative stance. While the inflation has remained above the targetted 6 per cent since January, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the inflation print in April is also likely to be high.
While there are certainly more hawks perched on monetary policy committees of central banks around the world now than a couple of months ago, the doves still have the upper hand.
Kotak Mahindra Bank was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, sliding 2.68 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Motors, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Nestle and Titan. In contrast, NTPC, Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, HDFC, Reliance and HDFC Bank were the gainers.
Das said that global economic activity has remained fragile and the surge in COVID-19 cases has subdued early signs of revival.
Vijay, despite the loud message from his delayed arrival at the road-show/stampede venue, and more so his continued inaccessibility for fans-turned-cadres after graduating from a super-star to a political party leader with electoral ambitions, refuses to change. Or, so it seems, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Pressure has been mounting on the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates in the wake of declining retail inflation and the need to fuel growth momentum. However, the RBI will have to do a tightrope walk as globally interest rates are inching upwards.
As the policy rate has seen a steady increase since May 2022, the percentage of loans offered at interest rates below 8 per cent have declined sharply, dropping from 53 per cent in March 2022 to 18 per cent by June 2023, according to a report by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The share of bank loans with interest rates of 10 per cent or higher rose from 22 per cent to 34 per cent during this period, reflecting the impact of a 250 basis point (bps) hike in the policy repo rate by the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee. In response to the rise in repo rate, 32 domestic banks have made corresponding upward revisions to their repo-linked external benchmark-based lending rates (EBLRs), aligning them with the magnitude of the rate hike.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to 6.44 per cent in February, mainly on account of a slight easing in prices of food and fuel items though it remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent for the second month in a row. As per the government data released on Monday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation was at 6.52 per cent in January and 6.07 per cent in February 2022. The retail inflation rate for the food basket worked out to be 5.95 per cent in February, marginally lower than 6 per cent in January.
The finance ministry expects a broad-based moderation in inflationary pressures on the back of an anticipated reduction in food prices as a result of the uptick in summer sowing. The retail inflation rate remained stubbornly clung to the 5 per cent mark in seven of the past eight months. "Core inflation is trending downwards, indicating a broad-based moderation in price pressures... Driven by strong domestic growth and benign global commodity prices, core inflation is declining continuously.
